On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) delivered a new version of its Economic Outlook Report for member countries, in which it maintained the projections for Chile. 

The report estimates that activity will grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 2026, in seasonally adjusted terms and considering the working days of each year. In turn, it states that "household consumption will benefit from the increase in real wages and job creation, while investment will be boosted by the reduction in credit costs and the improvement in business confidence. Export growth is projected to remain robust, despite persistent global trade uncertainty."

From Paris, France, where he is participating in the 2025 Meeting of the Ministerial Council of the Organization, the Minister of Finance, Mario Marcel, valued this Report: "For most countries, it lowers its growth projections for this and next year. Chile stands out in the other direction, since for 2025 there is no reduction, and for 2026 there is an improvement in projections. The OECD projects that Chile's economy will grow 2.4% seasonally adjusted in both 2025 and 2026, quite in line with the projections of the latest Public Finance Report of the Ministry of Finance." 

The OECD complements that "activity has strengthened since mid-2024, with seasonally adjusted annual GDP growth reaching 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025. The monthly economic indicator (Imacec) for March points to a continued expansion and an upward revision of growth in early 2025, driven mainly by non-mining components. Industrial production is recovering, driven by solid external demand and the recovery of business confidence." 

The authority added that "the OECD's projections are in line with the notion that the Chilean economy is in a position to continue growing at around 2 1/2% of GDP in the medium term, exceeding the estimates of trend growth – below 2% – and the recent average of 2.1%. This is consistent with our approach that the economy is experiencing an inflection in the trend growth trajectory that it has followed for the previous 15 years." 

Regarding headline inflation, the Report notes that "it has rebounded recently, to 4.5% in April, reflecting the adjustment of electricity tariffs after a multi-year freeze, to better align prices with the real costs of generation and distribution, and the increase in energy costs. However, core inflation has continued its downward trend, steadily declining to 3.7% in April 2025. The impact of rising energy prices on inflation is expected to be temporary. Two-year inflation expectations remain firmly anchored around the central bank's 3% target, so monetary policy is expected to gradually converge towards a neutral stance as inflation remains on a downward trajectory. Real wages are rising again and employment is growing, although the pace of job creation remains uneven across sectors." 

Regarding fiscal policy, the Economic Outlook states that "it will remain prudent, guided by the fiscal rule and focused on keeping debt sustainable, while supporting targeted investment and social spending" and highlights that "the government announced additional fiscal consolidation measures in the first quarter of 2025, totaling approximately 0.6% of GDP, mainly through cuts in administrative spending. The primary balance is projected to improve gradually, with debt stabilizing over the projection period" and also anticipates that revenue-enhancing measures, including the new Mining Royalty, will support revenues and help to fund key programs during the projection period. 

Finally, Marcel indicated that "as for many participants in the economic debate in Chile, the OECD does not assume that we should be satisfied with these figures. To sustain the recovery, the importance of advancing reforms aimed at simplifying regulations, streamlining permits and strengthening capacities and innovation is emphasized, which would allow investment and productivity to increase in the medium term."